Researchers followed 1,252 people trying to lose weight over 24 weeks and discovered that different things matter at different times. At the start, your metabolism and motivation were most important. In the middle weeks, how long you’ve struggled with weight became the key factor. By the final weeks, emotional eating—eating when stressed or sad—became the biggest challenge. The study found that weight loss naturally slows down as time goes on, dropping from about 1.7 pounds per week to less than half a pound per week. This suggests that successful weight loss programs should change their approach depending on which stage people are in, rather than using the same strategy the whole time.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: What factors help or hurt people’s ability to lose weight during different stages of a 24-week weight loss program?
  • Who participated: 1,252 adults between ages 18 and 65 who joined a cognitive behavioral therapy program designed to help them lose weight. Participants had their weight measured every week and answered questions about their habits, emotions, and history with weight.
  • Key finding: Weight loss speed naturally decreases over time—from about 1.7 pounds per week in weeks 1-6, to 0.4 pounds per week by weeks 13-24. Different factors predict success at each stage: early success depends on your starting metabolism and motivation; mid-program success depends on your weight history; late-stage success depends on managing emotional eating.
  • What it means for you: If you’re trying to lose weight, expect the process to get slower and harder over time—this is normal. You may need different strategies at different times: focus on building good habits early, acknowledge that long-term weight struggles are real, and develop ways to handle stress eating as you progress. Talk to your doctor or a counselor about personalized strategies for your situation.

The Research Details

This was a longitudinal study, meaning researchers followed the same people over time rather than comparing different groups. All 1,252 participants joined a cognitive behavioral therapy program, which is a type of counseling that helps people change their thinking patterns and behaviors around food and eating. Researchers measured participants’ weight every single week for 24 weeks and collected information about their baseline characteristics (like metabolism, eating habits, and motivation) at the beginning and throughout the program.

The researchers then divided the 24-week period into three chunks: weeks 1-6 (early stage), weeks 7-12 (middle stage), and weeks 13-24 (late stage). They used statistical analysis to figure out which factors best predicted weight loss success during each period. This approach allowed them to see how the importance of different factors changed as the program progressed.

Understanding what matters at each stage is important because it suggests that one-size-fits-all weight loss programs may not work as well as programs that adapt to where people are in their journey. If coaches and doctors know that emotional eating becomes the main problem in later weeks, they can prepare people for this challenge and teach coping skills earlier. This research-based approach could make weight loss programs more effective.

This study has several strengths: it included a large number of participants (1,252), measured weight objectively every week rather than relying on memory, and followed people through the entire program. The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, which means the researchers planned their analysis in advance. However, all participants were in the same type of program, so results may not apply to other weight loss methods. The study doesn’t tell us why these factors matter, only that they do.

What the Results Show

The most striking finding was that weight loss speed naturally slows down dramatically over time. In the first six weeks, participants lost an average of 1.7 pounds per week. By weeks 7-12, this dropped to about 0.7 pounds per week. By the final period (weeks 13-24), weight loss slowed to just 0.4 pounds per week—less than half the initial rate.

The factors that predicted success also changed at each stage. During the first six weeks, the strongest predictors of weight loss were baseline factors: how fast your metabolism was, what your eating habits looked like before starting, and how motivated you felt. These ‘starting conditions’ were the best indicators of who would lose the most weight early on.

During weeks 7-12, something surprising happened: the only significant predictor of weight loss was how long someone had struggled with weight in their lifetime. People who had been overweight or obese for many years lost weight at different rates than those with shorter weight histories, suggesting that long-term weight patterns have a lasting effect.

By weeks 13-24, emotional eating behaviors became the dominant factor. People who ate in response to stress, sadness, or boredom had more difficulty continuing their weight loss. Additionally, the barriers people faced to managing emotional eating were the second-most important factor during this final period.

The study revealed that the natural slowdown in weight loss is not a failure—it’s a predictable pattern. This is important because many people feel discouraged when weight loss slows, not realizing this is expected. The shift in what matters at each stage suggests that people’s challenges evolve: early success is about starting strong, mid-program is about dealing with your weight history, and late-stage success is about managing emotions and stress.

Previous research has shown that weight loss typically slows over time, but this study provides more detail about why. Earlier studies identified emotional eating as a barrier to weight loss, but this research shows it becomes increasingly important as time goes on. The finding that baseline motivation matters early but not later aligns with other research suggesting that initial enthusiasm naturally fades and needs to be replaced with habit and coping skills.

All participants were in the same type of program (cognitive behavioral therapy), so these findings may not apply to other weight loss methods like surgery, medication, or different counseling approaches. The study doesn’t explain why these factors matter, only that they’re associated with weight loss outcomes. We don’t know if the results apply equally to all ages, genders, or ethnic groups since the study didn’t report these breakdowns. Additionally, the study measured only weight loss, not other important health markers like fitness, muscle mass, or overall health improvements.

The Bottom Line

If you’re starting a weight loss program: (1) Use the first 6 weeks to establish strong eating habits and build motivation—this is when you’ll see the fastest results. (2) Around weeks 7-12, acknowledge that your weight history matters and be patient with yourself; weight loss will naturally slow. (3) By weeks 13-24, develop strategies for emotional eating—learn to recognize when you eat due to stress or emotions rather than hunger, and practice alternative coping skills like walking, calling a friend, or deep breathing. Consider working with a therapist or counselor if emotional eating is a major challenge. Confidence level: Moderate—these findings are based on one study, though they align with other research.

These findings are relevant for anyone attempting weight loss, especially those in structured programs. They’re particularly helpful for people who have struggled with weight for many years and those who recognize emotional eating as a challenge. Healthcare providers and weight loss coaches should use this information to tailor their approach based on program stage. People with eating disorders or serious mental health conditions should work with specialists rather than relying solely on behavioral weight loss programs.

Expect the fastest weight loss in the first 6 weeks. By weeks 7-12, weight loss will noticeably slow—this is normal and doesn’t mean the program isn’t working. By weeks 13-24, focus shifts from rapid weight loss to sustainable habits. Real benefits in terms of health improvements (better blood pressure, blood sugar, energy) may appear within 4-8 weeks, even if the scale slows down.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Track weekly weight AND emotional eating triggers. Create a simple log: each time you eat, note whether you were physically hungry or eating due to emotion (stress, boredom, sadness). By week 13, you’ll have clear patterns showing which emotions drive your eating, allowing you to develop specific coping strategies.
  • Set stage-specific goals: Weeks 1-6, focus on logging all meals and building consistent eating patterns. Weeks 7-12, shift focus to understanding your weight history and being patient with slower progress. Weeks 13-24, practice identifying emotional eating triggers and use the app to log alternative coping activities (walk, call friend, meditate) instead of eating.
  • Use the app to track not just weight but also mood, stress level, and eating triggers. Create alerts at week 7 and week 13 to remind yourself that the program is working even if weight loss slows. Monitor emotional eating patterns weekly and celebrate non-scale victories like improved energy, better sleep, or reduced cravings.

This research describes patterns observed in one weight loss program and should not replace personalized medical advice. Weight loss needs and strategies vary significantly based on individual health conditions, medications, and circumstances. Before starting any weight loss program, consult with your doctor or a registered dietitian to ensure the approach is safe and appropriate for you. If you struggle with emotional eating, binge eating, or have a history of eating disorders, seek guidance from a mental health professional. This study shows associations between factors and weight loss outcomes but does not prove that changing these factors will guarantee weight loss success.