Researchers used computer models to predict what would happen if Mexico delayed raising taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy foods. They found that acting quickly in 2025 could prevent over 170,000 deaths by 2040, compared to waiting until 2035. The study shows that every year of delay means fewer lives saved and more people struggling with obesity. This research highlights why health experts are pushing countries to act now on proven strategies to fight obesity, rather than waiting.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: How many lives Mexico could save and how much obesity could be prevented if the government doubled taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy processed foods right away versus waiting 5, 10, or 15 years.
  • Who participated: The study used real health data from Mexican adults aged 20 and older collected between 2020-2022. Researchers created computer models based on this information to predict future outcomes for the entire adult population.
  • Key finding: If Mexico doubled these taxes in 2025, about 170,600 deaths could be prevented by 2040. If they waited until 2035, only about 38,900 deaths would be prevented. The difference shows that every year of delay costs lives.
  • What it means for you: This research suggests that waiting to implement health policies costs real lives. If you live in Mexico or a country considering similar taxes, acting sooner rather than later appears to make a significant difference in public health outcomes. However, this is a prediction model, not a guarantee of what will happen.

The Research Details

Researchers didn’t conduct a traditional experiment with people. Instead, they built a computer model that simulates what would happen to Mexico’s population over 20 years (2021-2040). They started with real health information from surveys that measured weight and other details about Mexican adults. Using this data, they created four different scenarios: doing nothing (status quo), or doubling taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy foods in 2025, 2030, or 2035. The computer model predicted how people’s weight would change under each scenario based on scientific formulas that show how taxes affect what people buy and eat.

The researchers used a well-established mathematical model called Hall’s microsimulation weight change model, which is commonly used in nutrition science to predict how changes in eating habits affect body weight. They also used government data about death rates to estimate how many lives could be saved. This approach allowed them to estimate long-term health impacts without waiting 20 years to see actual results.

This type of study is called a modeling or simulation study. It’s useful for predicting future outcomes and comparing different policy options, but it relies on assumptions and real-world results may differ.

Modeling studies like this are important because they help governments decide whether to implement policies before waiting decades to see if they work. Testing a new tax policy on the entire population would be impossible, so computer models provide the best way to estimate potential benefits. This research directly addresses a question from the World Health Organization about how urgent it is to implement obesity-fighting policies.

Strengths: The study used real, nationally representative data from Mexico rather than guessing. The researchers provided uncertainty ranges (showing they acknowledge their predictions might vary). The mathematical model they used is well-established and respected in the scientific community. Limitations: This is a prediction, not actual data, so real results could differ. The model makes assumptions about how taxes affect eating habits. The study only looked at adults aged 20 and older, not younger people. The researchers couldn’t account for all possible factors that might change over 20 years, like new food products or changes in culture.

What the Results Show

By 2040, if Mexico doubled taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy foods in 2025, obesity rates would drop to 41.6% of the population, compared to 44.5% if nothing changed. This might sound like a small difference, but across Mexico’s large population, it means millions of people would avoid obesity. The model predicted this would prevent 170,600 deaths over the 20-year period and give people 25 million additional years of life without obesity.

When researchers looked at delaying the tax increase to 2035 (10 years later), the benefits dropped dramatically. Obesity rates would only reach 41.7% instead of 44.5%, preventing just 38,900 deaths—less than one-quarter of the benefit from acting in 2025. The number of years people would live without obesity dropped from 25 million to 4.5 million. This shows that waiting a decade cuts the health benefits by roughly 75%.

The pattern is clear: the sooner Mexico implements higher taxes, the more lives are saved and the more people avoid obesity. Even waiting five years (until 2030) resulted in fewer benefits than acting immediately. The researchers presented these numbers with uncertainty ranges, meaning the actual results could be somewhat higher or lower, but the direction and general magnitude of the findings remained consistent.

The study also showed that the final obesity rate in 2040 was similar whether taxes were increased in 2025 or 2035 (41.6% versus 41.7%), suggesting that eventually the policy would have similar long-term effects. However, the crucial difference was in the number of people who would suffer and die during the waiting period. The study highlighted that delay doesn’t just postpone benefits—it causes real harm to people living during those years. Additionally, the research emphasized that the longer people live with obesity, the more health problems they experience, even if obesity rates eventually improve.

Previous research has shown that taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy foods do reduce obesity, but this study is among the first to specifically measure the cost of delaying such policies. Earlier studies confirmed that these taxes work, but they didn’t quantify how much worse things get if countries wait. This research builds on that foundation by showing that timing matters enormously. The World Health Organization has recommended these policies, and this study provides new evidence supporting urgent implementation rather than gradual rollout.

The study is based on predictions, not actual outcomes, so real results could differ. The researchers assumed that taxes would have a certain effect on eating habits based on previous studies, but actual behavior might vary. The model couldn’t account for unexpected changes like new food trends, economic shifts, or changes in how people shop. The study only included adults aged 20 and older in 2021, so it doesn’t show impacts on younger people or future generations. The research is specific to Mexico and may not apply to other countries with different food systems or populations. Finally, the study didn’t consider other factors that affect obesity, like exercise levels or stress, focusing only on food and drink choices.

The Bottom Line

Based on this research, health experts would recommend that Mexico (and similar countries) implement higher taxes on sugary drinks and unhealthy processed foods as soon as possible—ideally in 2025 rather than waiting. The evidence suggests this is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce obesity. However, this is a prediction model, so confidence should be moderate rather than absolute. The recommendation comes with the caveat that actual results depend on how well the policy is implemented and how people respond to the tax.

Government officials and policymakers in Mexico and other countries should care most about this research, as it directly informs policy decisions. Public health professionals should also pay attention, as it supports their advocacy for obesity prevention. People living in Mexico or countries considering similar policies should care because it affects their health and their families’ health. People concerned about obesity as a public health issue should find this relevant. However, this research is less directly applicable to individuals trying to lose weight personally—it’s about population-level policy, not individual diet advice.

According to the model, benefits would begin appearing within a few years of implementing the tax, as people gradually change their eating habits. However, the full impact on obesity rates and death prevention would take many years to become apparent—the study measured outcomes over 20 years. People shouldn’t expect immediate weight loss in the population, but rather a gradual shift over time. The most important timeline is the policy decision itself: waiting even a few years significantly reduces the total benefit.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Users could track their weekly spending on sugary drinks and unhealthy processed foods, comparing it to their spending on healthier alternatives. This creates awareness of how taxes might affect their budget and food choices.
  • Users in Mexico or countries with similar policies could set a goal to reduce purchases of taxed items by a certain percentage each month, tracking their progress in the app. They could also log healthier food substitutions they make instead.
  • Over months and years, users could monitor their weight and energy levels to see if reducing sugary drinks and unhealthy foods improves their personal health, while also tracking broader health metrics like blood pressure or cholesterol if available through connected devices.

This research is a computer prediction model, not actual data from real people. The findings suggest potential benefits of tax policies but cannot guarantee actual outcomes. Results are specific to Mexico and may not apply to other countries. This information is for educational purposes and should not replace advice from healthcare providers or government health officials. Anyone making personal health decisions should consult with their doctor. Policy decisions should be made by elected officials and public health experts considering multiple factors beyond this single study.