Researchers studied a large group of Americans to understand how well a simple blood test can predict who might have serious health problems or die from heart disease or diabetes. The test, called eGDR, measures how well your body handles sugar. People with a combination of heart, kidney, and metabolic problems (called CKM syndrome) who had lower eGDR scores were more likely to have health emergencies or die. This test appears to work better than other similar tests at spotting who needs help the most, especially for people without diabetes.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: Can a simple blood test that measures how well your body processes sugar predict serious health problems or death in people with heart, kidney, and metabolism issues?
  • Who participated: Adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (a large U.S. health study) between 1999 and 2018 who had cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome
  • Key finding: People with lower eGDR scores (meaning their bodies don’t handle sugar as well) had significantly higher chances of dying from any cause, heart disease, or diabetes-related complications
  • What it means for you: If you have heart, kidney, or metabolism problems, this test might help doctors identify who needs more aggressive treatment sooner. However, this is one study and more research is needed before doctors routinely use this test in practice.

The Research Details

This was a cohort study, which means researchers followed a large group of people over time and tracked what happened to them. They used health information collected from Americans between 1999 and 2018 through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Researchers looked at a specific blood test called eGDR (estimated glucose disposal rate) that measures how efficiently your body uses sugar. They then tracked which people got seriously ill or died and compared their eGDR scores to see if there was a connection.

The researchers used advanced statistical methods to analyze the data. They looked at whether the relationship between eGDR and health outcomes was straight (linear) or curved (nonlinear), meaning the risk might change differently at different eGDR levels. They also compared how well eGDR predicted problems compared to two other similar blood tests called TyG and HOMA-IR.

They also looked at whether the results were different depending on whether people had diabetes, prediabetes, or normal blood sugar levels. This helped them understand if the test works better for some groups than others.

This research matters because people with combined heart, kidney, and metabolism problems are at very high risk for serious health events. Currently, doctors use several different tests to predict who is at highest risk. If eGDR is better at predicting problems than existing tests, it could help doctors identify patients who need urgent help sooner. This could lead to earlier treatment and better outcomes.

This study used data from a well-established national health survey, which is a strength. The researchers followed people over many years, which allows them to see what actually happened to people’s health. However, the study is observational, meaning researchers watched what happened naturally rather than randomly assigning people to different treatments. This means we can’t be completely sure that lower eGDR causes worse outcomes—there could be other factors involved. The study also didn’t include information about all possible factors that might affect health outcomes.

What the Results Show

The main finding was that people with lower eGDR scores had significantly higher risks of dying from any cause, dying from heart disease, or dying from diabetes-related causes. The relationship between eGDR and death risk was not always straightforward—for some types of death, the risk increased more sharply at certain eGDR levels than others.

When researchers looked at people with different blood sugar levels, they found that eGDR was especially good at predicting all-cause death in people with diabetes, predicting heart disease death in people with prediabetes, and predicting multiple types of death in people with normal blood sugar levels.

When comparing eGDR to two other similar blood tests (TyG and HOMA-IR), eGDR performed better overall at predicting who would have health problems. This was especially true for people with normal blood sugar levels and people with prediabetes.

The study found that the strength of eGDR’s ability to predict problems varied depending on a person’s blood sugar status. For people with diabetes, eGDR was best at predicting overall death risk. For people with prediabetes, it was best at predicting heart disease death. For people with normal blood sugar, it predicted multiple types of health problems well. This suggests that eGDR might be most useful as a screening tool in people without diabetes.

Previous research has shown that insulin resistance (when your body doesn’t respond well to insulin) is important in developing heart, kidney, and metabolism problems. Several blood tests can measure insulin resistance, including HOMA-IR and TyG. This study suggests that eGDR might be a better choice than these other tests, particularly for identifying high-risk patients. However, eGDR is not yet widely used in clinical practice, so this research adds important evidence that it might be worth using more often.

This study has several important limitations. First, it’s observational, so we can’t prove that lower eGDR causes worse health outcomes—only that they’re connected. Second, the study used data collected over 20 years, and medical care has changed significantly during that time. Third, the study didn’t include information about all factors that might affect health outcomes, such as medication use, diet, or exercise habits. Fourth, the study focused on Americans, so results might not apply to other populations. Finally, while the study shows eGDR predicts problems well, it doesn’t prove that measuring eGDR and treating based on it will actually improve health outcomes.

The Bottom Line

Based on this research, eGDR appears to be a promising blood test for identifying people with heart, kidney, and metabolism problems who are at highest risk for serious health events. However, this is still research-level evidence. Doctors should not yet routinely use eGDR for all patients, but it may be worth considering for patients with known heart, kidney, or metabolism problems, especially those without diabetes. More research is needed to confirm these findings and to test whether using eGDR to guide treatment actually improves patient outcomes.

This research is most relevant to people who have been diagnosed with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome or who have multiple conditions affecting their heart, kidneys, and metabolism. It’s also relevant to doctors and healthcare providers who care for these patients. People with diabetes, prediabetes, or normal blood sugar levels might all benefit from this test, though the research suggests it may be most useful in people without diabetes. People without any of these conditions probably don’t need to worry about this test right now.

This research doesn’t tell us how quickly eGDR changes or how quickly treatment based on eGDR results would improve health. That would require additional studies. However, since eGDR is a blood test, results would be available within days. Any health improvements from treatment would likely take weeks to months to become noticeable.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • If your doctor orders an eGDR test, track your results over time in your health app. Record the date, your eGDR score, and any changes your doctor makes to your treatment. Also note any lifestyle changes you make, such as diet or exercise modifications.
  • Use your eGDR results as motivation to improve habits that affect blood sugar and heart health: increase physical activity to at least 150 minutes per week, reduce added sugars and processed foods, maintain a healthy weight, and take medications as prescribed. Log these activities in your app to see patterns over time.
  • If you have heart, kidney, or metabolism problems, ask your doctor about getting an eGDR test as part of your regular health monitoring. Track the results alongside other important measurements like blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood sugar. Review your results every 3-6 months with your healthcare provider to see if your lifestyle changes or treatments are working.

This research is preliminary and has not yet been implemented into standard medical practice. eGDR testing is not yet widely available or recommended by major health organizations. Do not use this information to diagnose or treat any condition. If you have heart, kidney, or metabolism problems, consult with your healthcare provider about appropriate testing and treatment options. This study shows an association between eGDR and health outcomes but does not prove that measuring eGDR or treating based on eGDR results will improve your health. Always discuss any new medical tests or treatments with your doctor before starting them.