Researchers analyzed data from 204 countries over 30 years and found that eating too much processed meat—like bacon, sausage, and deli meat—is responsible for a growing share of type 2 diabetes cases globally. In 2021, processed meat accounted for about one in five cases of diabetes-related illness and death. The problem has gotten worse over time, especially in middle-income countries. The good news? The study shows that even small reductions in processed meat consumption could prevent thousands of deaths each year.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: How much type 2 diabetes (a common blood sugar disease) around the world is caused by eating too much processed meat, and how this has changed from 1990 to 2021.
  • Who participated: This wasn’t a study of individual people. Instead, researchers analyzed health data collected from 204 countries over 31 years to understand global patterns of diabetes linked to processed meat consumption.
  • Key finding: Processed meat is responsible for about 20% of the world’s type 2 diabetes burden. Deaths from diabetes linked to processed meat more than doubled (went up 118%), and the total health impact tripled over the 31-year period studied.
  • What it means for you: If you eat processed meats regularly, reducing how much you eat could lower your diabetes risk. Even cutting consumption by 10-25% could prevent thousands of deaths globally. However, processed meat is just one risk factor among many for diabetes—other factors like overall diet quality, exercise, and weight also matter significantly.

The Research Details

Researchers used a method called a systematic analysis, which means they gathered and analyzed health information from many countries collected over 31 years (1990-2021). They looked at official global health data that tracks deaths and disabilities from different diseases. They calculated how many deaths and how much disability were specifically caused by eating too much processed meat, rather than other causes. The team also used special statistical methods to look at trends over time and to understand how different countries’ wealth levels affected these patterns.

This type of large-scale analysis is important because it shows us the real-world impact of food choices across the entire world, not just in one country or one group of people. By looking at 31 years of data, researchers could see whether the problem is getting better or worse. They also looked at how the COVID-19 pandemic affected these patterns, which helps us understand how major events can change health trends.

This study used official global health data from the World Health Organization, which is reliable and widely accepted. The researchers analyzed data from all 204 countries, making the findings very comprehensive. However, the study relies on data that countries report, which may vary in accuracy. The study shows associations (connections) between processed meat and diabetes, but doesn’t prove that processed meat directly causes diabetes in individuals—other factors also play important roles.

What the Results Show

In 2021, processed meat consumption was linked to about 115,000 deaths from type 2 diabetes worldwide and 6.1 million cases of disability or illness. This represents roughly 20% of all type 2 diabetes burden globally. Over the 31-year period studied, deaths from diabetes linked to processed meat more than doubled, increasing from about 53,000 to 115,000. The total health burden (combining deaths and disability) tripled from 2 million to 6.1 million cases. The problem was worst in middle-income countries that were developing economically—these countries showed the biggest increases in processed meat-related diabetes.

The COVID-19 pandemic appeared to change these trends temporarily. Deaths from processed meat-related diabetes actually started declining during the pandemic, possibly because people stayed home and changed their eating habits. However, the overall disability burden from diabetes continued to rise even during the pandemic. The research also found that the relationship between a country’s wealth and processed meat-related diabetes wasn’t simple—the biggest problems occurred in countries at a specific economic development level, not necessarily the richest or poorest countries.

Previous research has shown that processed meat increases diabetes risk, but this study is one of the first to look at the global impact across so many countries over such a long time period. It confirms what smaller studies suggested and shows that the problem is growing faster than many experts expected. The finding that middle-income countries are most affected is relatively new and suggests that as countries develop economically, processed meat consumption increases before people learn about its health risks.

This study shows connections between processed meat and diabetes but cannot prove that processed meat directly causes diabetes in any individual person. The accuracy depends on how well countries report their health data, which varies worldwide. The study couldn’t account for all other factors that affect diabetes risk, like physical activity, overall diet quality, genetics, and stress. The data comes from different sources with varying quality, which could affect the results. Additionally, the study measures consumption patterns at a population level, not individual eating habits.

The Bottom Line

Moderate confidence: Reducing processed meat consumption, especially if you eat it regularly, may help lower your type 2 diabetes risk. The research suggests that even a 10-25% reduction in consumption could have meaningful health benefits. This doesn’t mean you can never eat processed meat, but eating it less often and in smaller amounts is a reasonable health goal. Combine this with other healthy habits like regular physical activity, eating more vegetables, and maintaining a healthy weight for best results.

This research matters most for people who eat processed meat regularly, people with family history of diabetes, people who are overweight, and people in middle-income countries where processed meat consumption is rising. It’s also relevant for public health officials and policymakers who can influence food availability and education. People who rarely eat processed meat don’t need to worry, but they should still maintain other healthy habits. If you already have diabetes, talk to your doctor about your diet.

Changes in diabetes risk from reducing processed meat consumption typically take months to years to show up in blood sugar tests. You might notice improvements in energy levels and weight within weeks to months if you make dietary changes. However, preventing diabetes is a long-term goal—think in terms of months and years, not days and weeks.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Track processed meat servings weekly (bacon, sausage, deli meats, hot dogs, pepperoni). Set a goal to reduce by 10-25% each month and log your actual consumption to see progress.
  • Replace one processed meat meal per week with a plant-based protein (beans, tofu, nuts) or unprocessed meat (fresh chicken or fish). Use the app to plan these swaps ahead of time and track which replacements you enjoy most.
  • Monitor your processed meat intake monthly and track any changes in energy levels, weight, or blood sugar readings (if you test). Set quarterly goals to gradually reduce consumption, and celebrate small wins to stay motivated.

This research shows a connection between processed meat consumption and type 2 diabetes at a population level, but does not prove that processed meat causes diabetes in any individual. Type 2 diabetes is caused by many factors including genetics, weight, physical activity, and overall diet quality. This information is for educational purposes and should not replace medical advice from your doctor. If you have diabetes or are concerned about your diabetes risk, consult with a healthcare provider or registered dietitian for personalized recommendations. Always talk to your doctor before making significant dietary changes, especially if you take medications.