Researchers found that measuring certain molecules in your blood called lncRNAs could help predict who will develop type 2 diabetes in the future. In a study of 462 people followed for 5 years, scientists identified four specific lncRNAs that, when combined with standard health measurements, were better at predicting diabetes risk than current methods. Interestingly, people who followed a Mediterranean diet (rich in vegetables, fish, and olive oil) showed the strongest protective effects. This discovery could help doctors identify people at high risk and recommend lifestyle changes before diabetes develops.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: Can special molecules found in blood predict whether someone will develop type 2 diabetes in the future?
  • Who participated: 462 people without diabetes who were followed for 5 years. Half followed a Mediterranean diet (lots of vegetables, fish, and olive oil) and half followed a low-fat diet.
  • Key finding: Four specific blood molecules (called XIST, LINC01116, CASC2, and LINC01370) combined with standard health tests predicted diabetes risk better than current methods. People with lower levels of these molecules had 63% lower risk of developing diabetes.
  • What it means for you: This test might help doctors identify people at high risk for diabetes before it develops, allowing them to make dietary changes early. However, this is still research—the test isn’t available for regular use yet and needs more testing before doctors can recommend it widely.

The Research Details

This was a long-term study that followed 462 people without diabetes for 5 years. Researchers measured 22 different molecules in their blood at the start, then tracked who developed diabetes. Half the participants ate a Mediterranean diet (lots of vegetables, fish, whole grains, and olive oil) while the other half ate a low-fat diet. The researchers used computer programs to figure out which blood molecules were best at predicting who would get diabetes.

The study was part of a larger research project called CORDIOPREV that looked at heart health and diet. By measuring blood molecules at the beginning and following people over time, researchers could see which molecules were actually connected to diabetes development, not just coincidence.

The researchers used two main approaches: traditional statistics and machine learning (computer programs that learn patterns from data). This combination helped them find the most reliable predictors.

Current methods for predicting diabetes risk rely on blood sugar tests and other measurements that only show problems when they’re already developing. Finding blood molecules that predict diabetes years in advance could let doctors help people prevent it through diet and lifestyle changes. This study is important because it shows these new molecules work better than current tests and that diet (especially Mediterranean diet) affects these molecules.

This study has good strengths: it followed real people for 5 years (not just a short study), it had a decent number of participants (462), and it used both traditional and advanced computer methods to find patterns. However, all participants were from one research project, so results might not apply to everyone. The study was published in a respected medical journal focused on heart and diabetes health. The findings are promising but need to be tested in other groups of people before doctors can use this test in regular practice.

What the Results Show

Researchers tested 22 different blood molecules and found that four of them were especially good at predicting diabetes: XIST, LINC01116, CASC2, and LINC01370. When doctors combined these four molecules with standard health measurements (like blood pressure and weight), they could predict diabetes risk much better than using current methods alone.

The prediction test worked quite well—it correctly identified risk about 73% of the time, which is better than using just blood sugar tests (which worked 71% of the time) or standard health measurements alone. People who had lower levels of these four molecules had a 63% lower chance of developing diabetes over the 5-year study period.

Interestingly, the protective effect was strongest in people following a Mediterranean diet. This diet—which includes lots of vegetables, fish, whole grains, nuts, and olive oil—seemed to work together with these blood molecules to reduce diabetes risk. This suggests that diet and these biological markers are connected.

The study also found that these blood molecules were connected to something called the ‘disposition index,’ which measures how well your body handles blood sugar. People with lower levels of the four protective molecules had better disposition index scores, especially if they were eating a Mediterranean diet. This helps explain why these molecules are good predictors—they’re measuring something real about how your body processes sugar.

Previous research suggested that lncRNAs (the type of molecules studied here) might be useful for predicting disease, but few studies had actually tested whether they worked better than current methods. This study is one of the first to show that these molecules can outperform standard blood sugar tests. The finding that Mediterranean diet works together with these molecules is also new and suggests that personalized medicine—tailoring prevention strategies to individual biology—might be more effective than one-size-fits-all approaches.

This study followed people from one research project, so the results might not apply to everyone—different populations might have different results. The study was relatively small (462 people), so larger studies are needed to confirm findings. The test isn’t available yet and hasn’t been tested in regular medical practice. Also, researchers only measured these molecules at the beginning of the study, so they don’t know if changes in these molecules over time would be even better predictors. Finally, the study was done in people who were already interested in diet research, so results might differ in people with different backgrounds.

The Bottom Line

This research is promising but not yet ready for regular use. If you have risk factors for type 2 diabetes (family history, overweight, sedentary lifestyle), focus on proven prevention strategies: eat a Mediterranean-style diet rich in vegetables, fish, and olive oil; exercise regularly; and maintain a healthy weight. These approaches have strong evidence and don’t require a new test. Ask your doctor about your diabetes risk at your next checkup. In the future, this blood test might help identify high-risk people, but that’s probably 2-5 years away.

This research matters most for people at high risk for type 2 diabetes: those with family history, overweight or obesity, sedentary lifestyle, or prediabetes. It’s also relevant for doctors and researchers looking for better ways to identify at-risk people. People already diagnosed with diabetes won’t benefit from this prediction test. This research is less immediately relevant for people with low diabetes risk, though everyone benefits from healthy eating and exercise.

If you start following a Mediterranean diet and exercise regularly based on current evidence, you might see improvements in blood sugar control within 3-6 months. The new blood test, if it becomes available, would likely be used alongside lifestyle changes, not instead of them. Long-term benefits (actually preventing diabetes) typically take 1-3 years of consistent healthy habits to demonstrate.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Track daily adherence to Mediterranean diet components: servings of vegetables (goal: 5+), fish meals per week (goal: 2-3), olive oil use, and whole grain servings. Also track weekly exercise minutes (goal: 150 minutes moderate activity). Monitor fasting blood sugar if you have a home meter, checking monthly trends.
  • Start by adding one Mediterranean diet element per week: Week 1 add more vegetables, Week 2 add fish meals, Week 3 switch to whole grains, Week 4 use olive oil instead of other oils. Simultaneously, schedule three 30-minute exercise sessions weekly. Use the app to log meals and exercise, creating visual progress that motivates continued changes.
  • Set up monthly check-ins to review diet adherence percentage and exercise minutes completed. Track any changes in energy levels, weight, and (if available) blood sugar readings. Create a 3-month goal to establish Mediterranean diet as habit, then 6-month goal to assess weight and health markers with your doctor. Use app notifications to remind about meal planning and exercise scheduling.

This research describes a promising new test that is not yet available for clinical use. The findings suggest potential benefits but require further validation in larger, diverse populations before doctors can recommend this test for routine diabetes screening. This article is for educational purposes and should not replace medical advice from your healthcare provider. If you have concerns about diabetes risk, consult your doctor about proven prevention strategies including diet, exercise, and weight management. Do not delay seeking medical care based on this information.