A new study predicts that a common liver disease called MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis) will become much more expensive and widespread over the next 20 years. Researchers looked at nine countries including the US, UK, Germany, Japan, and Brazil to estimate how much this disease will cost in medical bills, lost work time, and reduced quality of life. They found that without action, the disease will affect more people and costs could more than double in most countries. The study warns that governments and healthcare systems need to act now to prevent this disease from becoming an even bigger problem.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: How much money MASH (a type of fatty liver disease) will cost countries around the world over the next 20 years, and how many people will be affected
  • Who participated: This wasn’t a study with human participants. Instead, researchers used computer models and existing health data from nine countries (US, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, UK, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil) to make predictions
  • Key finding: Medical costs for MASH are expected to more than double in most countries by 2040. In the US alone, costs could jump from about $35 billion per year to nearly $79 billion per year. The number of people with advanced liver disease will increase by at least 20% in every country studied
  • What it means for you: If you live in one of these countries, MASH is likely to become a bigger health problem in your community. This suggests that doctors and governments should focus on preventing and treating this disease now, before it becomes even more costly and widespread. However, these are predictions based on current trends, so the actual impact could be different

The Research Details

Researchers used a computer model called a Markov model to predict what would happen to MASH over 20 years (2021-2040). Think of it like a weather forecast, but for disease. They started with information about how many people had the disease in 2020, then used medical research to estimate how the disease would progress and spread. They included information about how obesity and type 2 diabetes (which are connected to MASH) would change, and they adjusted their predictions based on real-world data about serious liver complications like cirrhosis and liver cancer.

The researchers gathered information from nine different countries and adjusted their calculations for each country’s specific healthcare costs and economic conditions. They also updated their predictions each year to account for inflation (when prices go up over time). This approach allowed them to estimate not just medical costs, but also lost work productivity and reduced quality of life.

This type of study is important because it helps governments and healthcare systems plan for the future. By understanding how expensive a disease might become, decision-makers can decide whether to invest in prevention and treatment now. It’s like a warning system that shows why taking action early is better than waiting until the problem gets much worse and more expensive

This study used established mathematical models and based its predictions on published medical research. However, it’s important to understand that these are predictions, not certainties. The actual future could be different depending on whether new treatments are developed, how well people manage their weight and diabetes, and other factors that are hard to predict. The study used data from nine countries, which gives it good geographic coverage, but the accuracy of predictions depends on how accurate the underlying data and assumptions are

What the Results Show

The study projects that MASH will become more common in all nine countries studied. In the US, the percentage of people with MASH is expected to increase from 6.71% to 7.41% of the population. Similar increases are expected in other countries, with some countries like Japan showing larger percentage increases.

Most importantly, the costs are projected to more than double in most countries. In the US, annual medical costs could jump from about $35 billion to nearly $79 billion. Germany’s costs could go from $0.83 billion to $1.82 billion. Spain, France, Italy, and the UK all show similar doubling patterns. Even countries with lower current costs like Japan and Saudi Arabia are expected to see their expenses more than double.

The study also found that the number of people with advanced liver disease (the most serious stages) will increase by at least 20% in every country. This is particularly concerning because advanced disease is much more expensive to treat and causes more suffering. Additionally, the study projects that people will lose more work time due to illness, and their overall quality of life will decline as the disease becomes more widespread and severe.

Beyond the direct medical costs, the research highlights that work productivity losses (money lost when people can’t work due to illness) are expected to more than double in most countries. This means the total economic impact is even larger than just healthcare costs. The study also notes that quality of life will decline modestly as more people develop advanced disease, which affects not just the sick individuals but their families and communities as well

Previous research has shown that MASH is becoming more common worldwide, largely because obesity and type 2 diabetes are increasing. This study builds on that knowledge by providing specific economic predictions for multiple countries. It confirms what many experts have suspected: that without action, MASH will become an increasingly expensive health problem. The study’s approach of looking at multiple countries helps show that this isn’t just a problem in wealthy nations but affects countries at different economic levels

This study makes predictions based on current trends, but the future could be different. If new, effective treatments are developed, the burden could be less severe. If people successfully lose weight and manage their diabetes better, the disease could spread more slowly. The study also relies on data from nine specific countries, so the predictions may not apply equally to all parts of the world. Additionally, the study doesn’t account for unexpected events (like pandemics) that could change healthcare systems and disease patterns. Finally, these are mathematical predictions, not guaranteed outcomes, so actual costs and disease rates could be higher or lower than projected

The Bottom Line

Based on this research, public health experts should prioritize: (1) Prevention programs that help people maintain healthy weight and manage diabetes, since these are the main risk factors for MASH; (2) Early screening and diagnosis of MASH before it becomes advanced; (3) Research into new treatments for MASH; (4) Education for the public about the risks of MASH. These recommendations have moderate to strong support from this research, though the study itself doesn’t test whether these interventions actually work

Everyone should care about this research, but especially: people with obesity or type 2 diabetes (who have higher risk for MASH), healthcare workers and hospital administrators (who need to plan for increased demand), government officials and policymakers (who need to allocate resources), and taxpayers (since healthcare costs affect everyone). People without obesity or diabetes should still care because this disease affects public health and healthcare costs for entire countries

The predictions in this study extend to 2040, which is 15+ years away. However, the trends are expected to start becoming noticeable within the next 5-10 years. If prevention and treatment efforts begin now, they could slow or reduce the predicted increases. If nothing changes, the full impact of these predictions could be felt by 2030-2040

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Track weight and waist circumference monthly, along with blood sugar levels if you have diabetes. These are the main risk factors for MASH, so monitoring them helps you understand your personal risk
  • Use the app to set and track goals for healthy eating and physical activity. Aim for at least 150 minutes of moderate exercise per week and maintain a healthy weight, as these are the best ways to prevent or slow MASH progression
  • Set up quarterly check-ins to review your weight, activity level, and any symptoms (like fatigue or abdominal discomfort). If you have risk factors for MASH, work with your doctor to get liver function tests done annually to catch any problems early

This research presents predictions about future disease trends based on mathematical models and current data. These are not guaranteed outcomes and actual results may differ. This information is for educational purposes and should not be used to diagnose, treat, or prevent any disease. If you have concerns about liver health, fatty liver disease, obesity, or diabetes, please consult with a qualified healthcare provider. This study does not provide medical advice for individual patients. The findings are based on population-level data and may not apply to every person or every country.