According to research reviewed by Gram, high body weight and kidney dysfunction are shared drivers of both type 2 diabetes and heart disease across 204 countries. Six modifiable risk factors were linked to more than 70% of cases in regions where the two diseases rise together.
Diabetes and heart disease often show up together, and a new study helps explain why. According to research reviewed by Gram, researchers looked at 2021 health data from 204 countries and territories to find out which risk factors drive these two conditions. They found that high body weight and kidney problems raise the risk of both diseases. High blood sugar mainly affects diabetes, while low temperatures, high blood pressure, and diets low in whole grains are more closely tied to heart disease. In many regions, six key factors were linked to more than 70% of cases. The researchers say the best approach combines broad steps that help everyone, such as healthier eating and staying active, with local strategies that target each region’s biggest risks. This study shows patterns across populations. It does not prove that any one habit causes disease in a specific person.
Key Statistics
A 2026 analysis of 204 countries and territories using 2021 Global Burden of Disease data found that high body weight and kidney dysfunction were shared risk factors for both type 2 diabetes and ischemic heart disease.
A 2026 study of 204 countries reported that three diabetes-related risk factors were linked to about 23% of global type 2 diabetes cases, while five heart-related factors were linked to about 56% of global heart disease cases.
A 2026 country-level analysis found that six combined risk factors were linked to more than 70% of type 2 diabetes and heart disease cases in regions where the two conditions were most consistent.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: The researchers asked where type 2 diabetes and heart disease (ischemic heart disease, caused by reduced blood flow to the heart) occur together around the world, and which everyday risk factors are linked to both.
- Who participated: The study did not enroll individual people. It used national health estimates for adults aged 25 and older from 204 countries and territories, based on 2021 data from the Global Burden of Disease project.
- Key finding: Six risk factors were identified: high body weight, kidney dysfunction, high fasting blood sugar, low temperature, high systolic blood pressure, and a diet low in whole grains. In regions where the two diseases were most consistent, these six factors were linked to more than 70% of cases.
- What it means for you: Many of these risk factors can be changed. Keeping a healthy weight, protecting kidney health, managing blood pressure and blood sugar, and eating more whole grains may help lower the chance of both conditions. Talk with a doctor about your personal risk.
The Research Details
The researchers gathered national estimates of how many people had type 2 diabetes and heart disease in each country. They also gathered data on 58 possible risk factors, such as body weight, blood pressure, diet, and smoking. This information came from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease project, a large global health database.
To find which factors mattered most, the team used a computer method called SHAP, which ranks how much each factor contributes to a prediction. They then used a statistical model called negative binomial regression to test which factors were still linked to disease after accounting for other influences. This process narrowed the list to six key factors.
Finally, the researchers estimated how much of each disease could be linked to these factors. They also created a combined risk score and compared risk maps with disease maps to see whether high-risk areas matched areas with more illness.
Looking at many countries at once shows patterns that a single study in one place could miss. It helps public health leaders decide where to focus limited resources. Mapping risk factors next to disease rates also shows whether the two match up in the real world, which strengthens the link between them.
The data come from a well-known, carefully maintained global database, which is a strength. However, the study estimates disease and risk factors using models, especially in countries with limited health records. The results show associations and patterns, not proof of cause and effect. The study also did not report a specific number of individual participants, because it analyzed national-level data.
What the Results Show
Across the 204 countries and territories, about 36% showed a consistent pattern where type 2 diabetes and heart disease rose and fell together. About 33% were dominated by diabetes, and about 31% were dominated by heart disease. This shows that the two conditions do not look the same everywhere in the world.
The researchers found six key risk factors. Two were shared by both diseases: high body mass index (a measure of body weight relative to height) and kidney dysfunction. One mainly affected diabetes: high fasting blood sugar. Three mainly affected heart disease: low temperature, high systolic blood pressure (the top number in a blood pressure reading), and a diet low in whole grains.
The factors explained different shares of each disease. The three diabetes-related factors were linked to about 23% of global diabetes cases. The five heart-related factors were linked to about 56% of global heart disease cases. These numbers describe the share of cases that could be connected to these factors, not the share that they directly caused.
In regions where the two diseases were most consistent, the six factors together were linked to more than 70% of both diabetes and heart disease cases. Maps of high-risk areas also overlapped closely with maps of where the diseases were most common.
The study suggests that the best way to reduce the combined burden is to address shared risks, such as body weight and kidney health, across the whole population. It also suggests that places with unusual patterns may need different strategies, such as cold-climate heart protection or diabetes screening programs. These ideas could help shape public health planning in different regions.
Earlier research has already linked excess body weight, high blood pressure, and blood sugar problems to both type 2 diabetes and heart disease. This study adds a global map and compares which risks matter most in different places. It supports the idea that diabetes and heart disease are connected through shared causes, not just by chance.
The study relies on national estimates and statistical models, which can be less accurate in countries with weaker health data. It shows links between risk factors and disease, but it cannot prove that changing one factor will prevent a specific case. Some factors, such as low temperature, are not things an individual can easily change, and the study cannot show how people’s daily lives differ within each country. The findings may not apply equally to every population group.
The Bottom Line
Research suggests that addressing shared risks may help reduce both type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Based on this study and related evidence, maintaining a healthy body weight, protecting kidney function, managing blood pressure and blood sugar, and eating more whole grains are reasonable steps (high confidence that these habits support health in general, moderate confidence about their specific effect on these two diseases). Public health groups may also need to tailor plans to local conditions.
Adults who have a family history of diabetes or heart disease, people with high blood pressure or kidney concerns, and public health planners may find this research most useful. People who are already managing these conditions should follow their doctor’s advice rather than changing treatment based on this study alone.
Changes in diet, activity, and weight can begin to affect blood sugar and blood pressure within weeks to months. Lower long-term risk of diabetes or heart disease usually develops over several years of consistent habits. Results vary from person to person, and some risk factors, such as family history or cold climate exposure, may be harder to change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What risk factors do type 2 diabetes and heart disease have in common?
High body weight and kidney dysfunction are shared risk factors for both conditions, according to a 2026 analysis of 204 countries using 2021 data. High fasting blood sugar mainly affects diabetes, while low temperature, high blood pressure, and low whole grain intake are more closely tied to heart disease.
Can changing my diet lower my risk of both diabetes and heart disease?
Eating more whole grains is one habit linked to heart disease risk in this global analysis. Combined with managing body weight, blood pressure, and blood sugar, healthy eating may help lower the risk of both conditions. Results are based on population patterns, so personal advice from a doctor is still important.
How much of heart disease is linked to modifiable risk factors worldwide?
A 2026 global study estimated that five heart-related risk factors were linked to about 56% of heart disease cases worldwide. These are estimates of linked cases, not proof that each factor directly caused illness in any individual person.
Why do diabetes and heart disease rates differ between countries?
Research using 2021 data from 204 countries found that about 36% of countries showed diabetes and heart disease rising together, while others were dominated by one condition. Local risk factors, such as climate and blood pressure levels, appear to shape these different patterns.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Log weekly averages of body weight, home blood pressure readings (if available), and the number of servings of whole grains eaten per day. Also track fasting blood sugar results from routine checkups when they are available.
- Set a simple goal to swap one refined grain food, such as white bread or white rice, for a whole grain version each day. Track progress in the app and review your weekly servings count.
- Review trends over several months rather than day to day. Share summary reports with a healthcare provider during routine visits, and update tracked numbers after each new lab test or blood pressure check.
This article summarizes a population-level study that estimated links between risk factors and disease across countries. It does not provide personal medical advice, and the findings show patterns, not guaranteed outcomes for any individual. Talk with a qualified healthcare provider before making changes to diet, exercise, or treatment, especially if you have diabetes, heart disease, or kidney problems.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.