Researchers studied nearly 29,000 people to see if a simple blood test could help predict who might develop asthma. They looked at a measurement called the monocyte-to-HDL ratio, which compares two types of cells and good cholesterol in your blood. They found that people with higher ratios were more likely to have asthma. Scientists then created a computer program that could predict asthma risk by combining this blood test with other health information like age, weight, and whether someone has heart disease. While the prediction tool worked moderately well, it suggests that this blood test might be useful for doctors trying to identify people at higher risk for asthma.

The Quick Take

  • What they studied: Whether a specific blood measurement (comparing infection-fighting cells to good cholesterol) could help predict who will develop asthma
  • Who participated: Nearly 29,000 American adults from a large national health survey conducted between 2001 and 2018, representing different ages, races, and backgrounds
  • Key finding: People with higher monocyte-to-HDL ratios were more likely to have asthma. A computer prediction tool using this measurement plus other health factors could identify asthma risk with moderate accuracy (about 64% reliability)
  • What it means for you: This blood test might someday help doctors identify people at higher risk for asthma before symptoms develop, allowing for earlier treatment. However, the tool isn’t perfect yet and shouldn’t replace standard asthma diagnosis methods. More research is needed before doctors start using it in regular practice.

The Research Details

Researchers used information from a large national health survey that tracked Americans’ health from 2001 to 2018. They looked at blood test results and health records from nearly 29,000 people to see if a specific blood measurement was connected to asthma. They split the participants into two groups: a larger training group (70%) used to develop a prediction tool, and a smaller testing group (30%) used to check if the tool actually worked. The researchers used advanced computer programs (machine learning) to find the best combination of health factors for predicting asthma risk.

The main blood measurement they studied is called the monocyte-to-HDL ratio. Monocytes are white blood cells that help fight infection, and HDL is the ‘good’ cholesterol. The ratio compares these two things in your blood. The researchers also included other health information like age, weight, smoking status, whether someone had heart disease, and income level in their prediction tool.

They tested several different computer prediction models to see which one worked best. The best-performing model could correctly identify asthma risk about 64% of the time, which is considered moderate accuracy.

This research approach is important because asthma affects millions of people and can be serious if not caught early. Finding a simple blood test that could identify people at risk before they develop symptoms could help doctors provide treatment sooner. Using computer programs to analyze large amounts of health data helps researchers find patterns that might not be obvious otherwise. This study shows that the monocyte-to-HDL ratio might be one useful piece of information, though it works best when combined with other health factors.

This study has several strengths: it used a very large, diverse group of people from across the United States, which makes the results more likely to apply to different populations. The researchers properly split their data into training and testing groups to avoid overestimating how well their tool works. However, the study also has limitations: the prediction tool’s accuracy (64%) is only moderate, meaning it would miss some people at risk and incorrectly identify others. The study only looked at data from one point in time rather than following people over years, so we can’t be completely sure the blood test causes asthma risk or just appears alongside it. The researchers couldn’t test whether actually using this blood test in real medical practice would help people.

What the Results Show

The main finding was that people with higher monocyte-to-HDL ratios were more likely to have asthma. This relationship was statistically significant, meaning it’s unlikely to have happened by chance. When researchers created a computer prediction tool using this blood test along with other health information, the tool could identify people at asthma risk with about 64% accuracy. This means if the tool predicted 100 people would have asthma, it would be correct about 64 times.

The computer analysis identified which health factors were most important for predicting asthma. Heart disease was the strongest predictor, followed by age, body weight, income level, and gender. The monocyte-to-HDL ratio was included in the final prediction tool, suggesting it provides useful information beyond these other factors.

When researchers tested their prediction tool on a separate group of people (the validation group), it performed similarly to how it worked on the training group. This suggests the tool might work reasonably well on new people, though the moderate accuracy means it’s not perfect.

The study found that several other health factors were important for asthma prediction. Heart disease was the single strongest predictor of asthma risk. Age, body weight (BMI), and income level also played significant roles. Interestingly, gender and race were also identified as factors, though the study doesn’t explain why these differences exist. Smoking status was included in the final model, suggesting it contributes to asthma risk prediction. The researchers found that the monocyte-to-HDL ratio added useful information beyond these other well-known risk factors.

Previous research has shown that inflammation in the body is connected to asthma development. The monocyte-to-HDL ratio is a measure of inflammation, so this finding aligns with what scientists already knew. However, this is one of the first studies to specifically test whether this particular blood measurement could predict asthma risk in a large, diverse population. The moderate accuracy of the prediction tool (64%) is similar to other early-stage prediction tools for chronic diseases, suggesting this is a reasonable starting point for future research. The finding that heart disease is the strongest predictor is interesting because it suggests asthma and heart disease may share some common risk factors related to inflammation and overall health.

This study has several important limitations. First, it only looked at data from one point in time rather than following people over years, so researchers can’t prove that higher monocyte-to-HDL ratios actually cause asthma—only that they appear together. Second, the prediction tool’s accuracy of 64% is only moderate, meaning it would miss some people who develop asthma and incorrectly flag others who don’t. Third, the study included mostly American adults from the national health survey, so results might not apply to other countries or populations. Fourth, the researchers couldn’t test whether doctors actually using this blood test in real practice would help patients. Finally, the study couldn’t explain why some factors like gender and race affect asthma risk, which limits how useful the tool might be for personalized medicine.

The Bottom Line

Based on this research, the monocyte-to-HDL blood test is not yet ready for doctors to use as a standard tool for predicting asthma risk. The moderate accuracy (64%) means it would need improvement before being useful in regular medical practice. However, this research suggests the blood test might be worth studying further in future research. If you have concerns about asthma risk, talk to your doctor about standard screening methods rather than asking for this specific blood test. The traditional approach of evaluating symptoms, family history, and lung function tests remains the best way to diagnose and predict asthma.

This research is most relevant to doctors and researchers working on asthma prevention and early detection. People with family histories of asthma, those with heart disease, or anyone concerned about asthma risk might find this interesting, but shouldn’t change their medical care based on this single study. People with existing asthma don’t need to worry about this research—it’s about predicting who might develop asthma in the future. Researchers studying inflammation and chronic diseases should pay attention to this work as it develops.

This research is still in early stages. Even if the blood test becomes useful in the future, it would likely take several more years of research before doctors start using it in regular practice. Don’t expect to see this test at your doctor’s office anytime soon. If you’re concerned about asthma risk, focus on proven prevention strategies like avoiding smoke and air pollution, maintaining a healthy weight, and managing other health conditions like heart disease.

Want to Apply This Research?

  • Track your monocyte-to-HDL ratio if your doctor orders a blood test, recording the date and value. Also log related health factors like weight, smoking status, and any new asthma symptoms or breathing changes. This creates a personal health timeline to discuss with your doctor.
  • Use the app to monitor the health factors that were most important in this study: maintain a healthy weight (track BMI), avoid smoking, manage heart health, and track any respiratory symptoms. Set reminders for regular check-ups with your doctor, especially if you have heart disease or family history of asthma.
  • Create a quarterly health review in the app comparing your weight, smoking status, and any asthma-related symptoms. If you have heart disease or other risk factors, use the app to ensure you’re taking medications as prescribed and maintaining healthy habits. Share this data with your doctor during annual check-ups to discuss asthma risk and prevention strategies.

This research describes an experimental blood test that is not yet approved for standard medical use in predicting asthma. The findings are preliminary and based on one study. Do not request this specific blood test from your doctor based on this article alone. If you have concerns about asthma risk, family history of asthma, or respiratory symptoms, consult with your healthcare provider about appropriate screening and diagnostic methods. This article is for educational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always discuss any health concerns with a qualified healthcare professional.